Project ExWaMar

Scope and output

Enhancing the forecast of extreme and rogue waves is of high importance for operability assessment of marine operations and for the wave forecasting services provided by MET Norway to shipping and oil companies today.

This project started in 2016 and will be completed in 2019. Apart from the warning criteria, we will also develop and improve numerical models for simulations of ocean waves on deep, intermediate and shallow water, as well as enhance the description of general wave statistical properties. These are important tools for DNV that can be used in a number of applications in research and advisory services as well as for design and marine operations. Finally, the past and future climate will be evaluated with respect to wave spectra, statistical properties of waves and occurrence of rogue waves. 

The main output of this project will be warning criteria for rogue waves which will be suggested for implementation in DNV Rules and Standards and in MET Norway wave forecasting services, ultimately enhancing safety at sea. The proposed revision of rules and standards will include also the developed nonlinear wave statistics as well as information about identified changes in wave description due to climate change.

Preliminary results

The investigations carried out so far include:

• Enhancement of the nonlinear wave code HOSM (Higher Spectral Method) to receive wave input from MET Norway’s spectral wave model and to provide output in the format suitable for the project objectives.
• Including effects such as finite water depth and wave breaking in the HOSM code as well as combining HOSM with CFD.
• Analysis of wave hindcast spectra in the past and future wave climate in the North Atlantic and the Norwegian waters based on the data generated in the RCN project ExWaCli. 
• Analysis of the Andrea rogue wave recorded at the Ekofisk field in the North Sea by utilizing field data from the array of lasers.
• Surface wave analysis based on coherent and incoherent radar measurements.
• Investigations of modulational instability in JONSWAP sea states.
• Crossing seas and occurrence of rogue waves.