Production and Financial Modeling Comparison of TMY vs Time Series for Utility-Scale Solar

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Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) data sets have historically been the primary resource input into utility-scale solar PV models. However, as computing power and more robust modeling techniques have been developed, the industry is considering time series analysis as a possible alternative. This research utilized DNV’s Solar Resource Compass Energy-Manual API to model annual and monthly production bias for a standardized utility-scale solar project using both TMY and time series data. The analysis expanded across four distinct climatological regions and three satellite data providers to provide a wide range of modeling scenarios. An internal financial model was also utilized with the annual and monthly production profiles to create an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) comparison. The results show the difference between TMY and time series data were generally statistically insignificant across all modeling scenarios.