Spain needs immediate action for 2050 climate neutrality despite significant emission reductions, DNV finds

DNV’s first Spain-focused Energy Transition Outlook (ETO) underscores the critical need to accelerate efforts toward achieving the country’s 2050 climate neutrality goals. The report reveals that while Spain is on track to reduce CO2 emissions by 74% compared to 1990 levels by mid-century, this pace lags behind the ambitious milestones outlined in the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP).

Spain has already made remarkable progress, cutting greenhouse gas emissions by nearly 27% between 2005 and 2019 - well above the EU’s average reduction of 19%. The ambitious 2050 strategy targets a carbon-neutral, sustainable, and climate-resilient nation. In 2020, Spain underscored this commitment by declaring a climate emergency and setting thirty priority actions to confront climate change. 

“Spain has made remarkable strides in emissions reduction and renewable energy leadership,” noted Santiago Blanco, Executive Vice President and Regional Director for Southern Europe, Energy Systems at DNV. “However, achieving net-zero demands an immediate scale-up in renewable deployment and infrastructure enhancements.” 

Quadrupling renewables  

DNV forecasts that Spain’s installed renewables capacity will quadruple by 2050, with solar capacity increasing to 230 GW and wind power to 120 GW, positioning Spain as a leading European solar market. This surge will not only drive energy security but also lower electricity production costs to 10% below the European average for solar and 15% lower for onshore wind by mid-century. On the other hand, fossil fuels, currently 70% of the energy mix, are expected to drop to below 30% by 2050. 

However, Spain’s short-term targets remain challenging. The National Energy and Climate Plan  goal for a 32% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 currently outpaces projected progress, with DNV forecasting a 13% reduction by that date instead. 

Accelerating grid expansion and interconnections  

Despite Spain’s competitive renewable energy costs, which already sit below the European average, immediate infrastructure limitations could slow progress. The share of electricity in energy is set to increase only modestly from 22% today to 26% by 2030, falling short of the NECP’s 35% target, before reaching 50% by 2050, driven by electric vehicles, buildings, and manufacturing. However, bottlenecks in permitting and limited interconnections threaten this shift. Streamlined regulatory frameworks and expanded grid capacity are needed, especially as electric vehicle adoption and electrification in buildings and industry grow.  

"Beyond more renewable installations, Spain also needs grid expansion and interconnections with Europe’s backbone network. This is crucial for both export capacity and better network management," noted Blanco. Current interconnections with Portugal are in place, but the narrow routes to France and Germany limit Spain’s export potential and call for new networks development—such as Bilbao-Bordeaux and Barcelona-Marseille.  

Hydrogen and cross-border collaboration for long-term success 

From the 2030s, hydrogen will become a notable component of Spain's industrial energy strategy, with exports to Europe expected to reach 1.7 Mt by mid-century. DNV’s report highlights Spain's low-cost renewable resources as key to achieving competitive hydrogen production, provided there is significant investment in infrastructure. 

“Hydrogen has the potential to be a game-changer for Spain’s energy mix, but it will take time and significant investments in renewable energy,” said Santiago Blanco. “Broader adoption is likely to takeat least a decade.” 

Path forward: Spain’s roadmap to leading Europe’s energy transition 

DNV’s outlook underscores the significant economic growth potential for Spain and shows that strengthening infrastructure and interconnections will enhance the country’s role in the European energy landscape. However, as the country phases out nuclear power, it may face extended reliance on natural gas for grid stability until the early 2030s. 

Blanco concluded, “Spain’s long-term success requires not only infrastructure and policy changes but also public understanding of and support for the energy transition. A clear, sustainable plan will help us navigate the challenges ahead. The path to full climate neutrality by 2050 requires urgent action, but Spain can meet its goals and lead the way in Europe by accelerating renewable energy deployment, improving electrification, and expanding infrastructure. With 160 years of experience globally, including 25 in the Spanish energy market and over 300 experts locally, DNV remains committed to collaborating with all stakeholders to drive the energy transition forward.”