Wind power is the only solution to Norway’s future energy needs
Norway will fall into an electricity deficit due to delays in building out wind power, according to DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook Norway report.
Høvik, Norway, November 28, 2024 – Despite offering the only scalable solution to meeting Norway’s immediate power needs, only minor wind installations are expected in the coming years which will lead to Norway becoming a net importer of electricity by the early 2030s. The buildout of wind power is forecast to accelerate from 2030 onwards and return Norway to a power surplus.
Norway's electricity needs will double to 260 TWh by 2050, accounting for 65% of the country's total energy demand, according to DNV's analysis. Fossil fuel consumption will decrease by more than half during the same period, with oil consumption in transportation expected to drop by as much as 80%.
Even though Norway is already the second most electrified country in the world, the demand for electricity is increasing across all sectors. We anticipate increased demand from households, process industry, and the transport sector, as well as data centres and oil and gas installations. 
“Data centres and the oil and gas sector are less price-sensitive than traditional industries, challenging Norwegian industries' access to affordable electricity. To meet Norway's future electricity needs and achieve necessary emission reductions, increased power production is essential—and action must be taken without delay,” says Remi Eriksen, Group President and CEO of DNV.
Wind power is the only scalable alternative
DNV maintains last year's forecast for the power balance, which predicts a likely annual power deficit of approximately 10 TWh in the early 2030s.
"Onshore and offshore wind are the only available and scalable options for significant new power production. Local opposition is delaying onshore wind projects, while high costs and slow auction and permitting processes are hindering offshore wind development. Despite these challenges, Norway is well-positioned to succeed with wind power both nationally and as a leading supplier of offshore wind technology internationally. I encourage both the industry and the authorities to accelerate the efforts already being carried out in this domain," Eriksen adds.
DNV projects Norway will add 13 GW of new onshore wind power and 21 GW of offshore wind by 2050, with fixed-bottom offshore wind contributing slightly more than floating installations. Overall, wind power will account for 84% of new power production by 2050. The cost of fixed-bottom offshore wind is expected to fall from $88 per MWh for investment decisions made in 2030 to $61 for those made in 2050. For floating offshore wind, costs are projected to decrease from $280 to $82 in the same period.
Energy exports to decline significantly but remain crucial for Europe
Norway is Europe's largest energy exporter and plays a key role in EU energy security. DNV's forecasts indicate that Norwegian oil exports will decline to 15 percent of current levels by 2050, while gas exports are likely to remain high until 2040, before being halved by 2050.
Exports of hydropower and wind power could provide valuable energy revenues for Norway in the long term, although they will not offset the significant revenue loss from oil and gas. Norwegian hydropower will increase in value as a critical flexible, emission-free energy source for Europe. By 2050, net electricity exports are expected to reach 40 TWh annually, with the price of exported hydropower significantly higher than that of imported wind power, generating substantial revenue for Norwegian power companies.
Although several blue hydrogen projects are on hold, DNV sees this as the most realistic solution to meet Europe's hydrogen needs by 2040. Norway is expected to export two million tons of hydrogen annually around 2040, starting with blue hydrogen and transitioning to green hydrogen as power surpluses grow.
Not on track to meet national emission targets
Norway aims to reduce emissions by 55% by 2030 and 90-95% by 2050. However, DNV forecasts only a 27% reduction in emissions from Norway by 2030 and 75% by 2050. 
"Existing and planned initiatives are insufficient to achieve the necessary acceleration in sectors such as industry, shipping, aviation, and agriculture. The potential for energy efficiency improvements is moderate, and current electricity subsidies significantly reduce incentives to cut consumption," says Sverre Alvik, Director of energy transition research at DNV.
Low belief in nuclear power
DNV does not anticipate nuclear power being part of Norway's energy mix by 2050 due to its high costs, long development times, and poor fit with the Norwegian energy system.
"Norway’s willingness to subsidise nuclear power in the same way as offshore wind is considered low, as the case for building an export industry is absent. From a cost perspective, nuclear power is expected to be expensive compared to many other sources of electricity production. Norway also lacks competitive advantages in nuclear power compared to other European countries," says Alvik.