Report, edition 2024

Maritime Forecast to 2050

16 %

fuel savings could be generated by energy efficiency measures by 2030, equivalent to:

120 MtCO2

of emissions

40 Mt

of fuel

2500

of the largest ships operating with carbon-neutral fuel

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Key highlights of the Maritime Forecast to 2050

The 8th edition of our Maritime Forecast to 2050 report pragmatically assesses the road ahead for shipping, analyzing regulations, technologies, and fuel availability, and helping stakeholders to make the correct decarbonization decisions today.

Several issues critical to the decarbonization challenge are considered:

How a complex regulatory framework is taking shape, including carbon pricing, mandates on reduced GHG intensity of marine fuels, and the option to pool compliance across a fleet of ships.
What the technological state of play is in the maritime industry today. While the technical transition is underway, supply of carbon-neutral fuels remains scarce.
How a range of operational and technical energy efficiency measures can deliver significant short-term emissions reductions, while also alleviating demand for carbon-neutral fuels.
What role other technologies, like onboard carbon capture, shore power and nuclear, can play in reducing maritime emissions.
How, regardless of the route taken, maritime decarbonization will come at a cost, which will have to be passed along the value chain to consumers.

Prioritizing energy efficiency, leveraging technological solutions, and embracing digitalization are key steps towards reducing costs and achieving our decarbonization goals.

Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen ,
CEO Maritime ,
DNV

About the 2024 edition of the Maritime Forecast to 2050

Maritime industry needs to prioritise technological solutions until costs and supply of carbon-neutral fuels become more feasible

The decarbonization of shipping is a complex puzzle with many potential solutions. IMO goals have been set and additional regulations like the EU ETS and FuelEU Maritime are now putting a cost on emissions. However, carbon-neutral fuels are expensive and in short supply so technological developments focused on energy efficiency and supported by digitalization need to be prioritised now to achieve short-term emissions reductions and lay the foundations for future success.

An unprecedented era of technological exploration underway and this year’s Maritime Forecast to 2050 report provides an overview of the technological and regulatory state of play in the industry, demonstrating different pathways to meeting the IMO’s GHG emission reductions targets.

Expand the boxes to read more.

Energy efficiency measures could generate fuel savings of 16% by 2030


Energy efficiency measures will be crucial in achieving fuel and emissions reductions until carbon-neutral fuels become more readily available. The Maritime Forecast to 2050 estimates that fuel consumption can be reduced by between 4% and 16% by 2030 using operational and technical energy efficiency measures. Achieving 16% would save 40 Mt of fuel and 120 MtCO2 emissions, which would be equivalent to operating the 55,000 smallest ships or the 2,500 largest ships with carbon-neutral fuel.

Energy efficiency measures will be crucial in achieving fuel and emissions reductions until carbon-neutral fuels become more readily available.

The Maritime Forecast to 2050 estimates that fuel consumption can be reduced by between 4% and 16% by 2030 using operational and technical energy efficiency measures. Achieving 16% would save 40 Mt of fuel and 120 MtCO2 emissions, which would be equivalent to operating the 55,000 smallest ships or the 2,500 largest ships with carbon-neutral fuel.

Necessary transition to carbon neutral fuels is being constrained by supply


Depending on energy efficiency gains, shipping’s demand for carbon-neutral fuels in 2030 is estimated to be between 9 and 55 Mtoe. With the probability adjusted global cross-sector production volume of carbon-neutral fuel expected to be between 44 and 62 Mtoe by 2030, it will be near impossible for shipping to secure its share, further emphasising the need for energy efficiency and other technological solutions.

Depending on energy efficiency gains, shipping’s demand for carbon-neutral fuels in 2030 is estimated to be between 9 and 55 Mtoe. With the probability adjusted global cross-sector production volume of carbon-neutral fuel expected to be between 44 and 62 Mtoe by 2030, it will be near impossible for shipping to secure its share, further emphasising the need for energy efficiency and other technological solutions.

Onboard carbon capture has potential to be the lowest cost decarbonization solution


Onboard carbon capture enables the continued use of conventional fuels and technologies and could represent a stronger business case than expensive carbon-neutral fuels. This year’s Maritime Forecast to 2050 simulates future scenarios for the onboard carbon capture value chain, estimating how much CO2 could be offloaded and stored in major ports, matching this with likely traffic volumes. Today there is a lack of infrastructure ready to receive and handle CO2 captured onboard ships. Out of 96 planned projects for dedicated storage, less than ten have reached final investment stage, with most still in the conceptual phase. Other technological solutions like shore power, batteries, nuclear propulsion, and fuel cells will also be essential to reduce the demand for carbon-neutral fuels.

Onboard carbon capture enables the continued use of conventional fuels and technologies and could represent a stronger business case than expensive carbon-neutral fuels.

This year’s Maritime Forecast to 2050 simulates future scenarios for the onboard carbon capture value chain, estimating how much CO2 could be offloaded and stored in major ports, matching this with likely traffic volumes. Today there is a lack of infrastructure ready to receive and handle CO2 captured onboard ships. Out of 96 planned projects for dedicated storage, less than ten have reached final investment stage, with most still in the conceptual phase.

Other technological solutions like shore power, batteries, nuclear propulsion, and fuel cells will also be essential to reduce the demand for carbon-neutral fuels.

Decarbonization will be underpinned by advances in digital technologies and systems


This year’s report demonstrates how digitalization can shed light on vessel performance. This provides vital data which shows the impact of energy saving measures, helping to design the next generation of energy-efficient ships. In addition, innovative application of digital tools using real-time data can create a more joined up maritime network, supporting decarbonization efforts. In a new age of emissions reporting, digital verification tools can also help to create an infrastructure of trust in shipping. Emissions reporting, new contractual arrangements, and regulatory mechanisms, such as pooling and book-and-claim, are dependent on transparent, reliable data, backed up by a trusted source.

This year’s report demonstrates how digitalization can shed light on vessel performance. This provides vital data which shows the impact of energy saving measures, helping to design the next generation of energy-efficient ships. In addition, innovative application of digital tools using real-time data can create a more joined up maritime network, supporting decarbonization efforts.

In a new age of emissions reporting, digital verification tools can also help to create an infrastructure of trust in shipping. Emissions reporting, new contractual arrangements, and regulatory mechanisms, such as pooling and book-and-claim, are dependent on transparent, reliable data, backed up by a trusted source.

Decarbonization could double the cost of container transport by 2050


Regardless of which decarbonization trajectory the maritime industry chooses, this will come at a cost. The Maritime Forecast to 2050 estimates an increase in cost per transport work in a decarbonized 2050 of 69-75% for bulk carriers, 70-86% for tankers and 91-112% for container vessels. Ultimately, the rising costs of seaborne transport will need to be passed down the value chain and the market is already seeing trends towards shifting these costs to end-users.

Regardless of which decarbonization trajectory the maritime industry chooses, this will come at a cost. The Maritime Forecast to 2050 estimates an increase in cost per transport work in a decarbonized 2050 of 69-75% for bulk carriers, 70-86% for tankers and 91-112% for container vessels. Ultimately, the rising costs of seaborne transport will need to be passed down the value chain and the market is already seeing trends towards shifting these costs to end-users.

Take control over your decarbonization journey

Decarbonizing shipping is a complex challenge that demands smart decisions and strategic investments to achieve the IMO’s 2050 zero-emission goal.

To get practical and start taking control over your decarbonization journey, we suggest focusing on these key areas:

Strategy
Fuel
Energy efficiency
Emissions management

Discover here how we can support you on your decarbonization journey.

Press release

Technological developments key to reducing maritime sector emissions

What is the Maritime Forecast to 2050?

The Maritime Forecast to 2050 by DNV is a comprehensive report that provides insights and guidance for the maritime industry on its path to decarbonization. It is part of DNV's Energy Transition Outlook series.

The Maritime Forecast to 2050 is published annually and has been released regularly since its first edition in 2017. Each edition provides updated insights and recommendations based on the latest developments in the maritime industry, including regulatory changes, developments in alternative fuel supply, as well as technological and infrastructural advancements.

Archive of previous editions:

2023	2022	2021	2020
2019	2018	2017