EV adoption and load forecasting for ISO New England

DNV partnered with ISO New England and successfully conducted a 10-year fleet EV adoption and load forecast covering selected fleet vehicle segments.

About the customer

ISO New England is the independent, not-for-profit corporation responsible for keeping electricity flowing across the six New England states and ensuring that the region has reliable, competitively priced wholesale electricity today and into the future. As the balancing authority for New England, ISO-NE understands the importance of forecasting fleet EV adoption to ensure it can adequately plan for transportation electrification across the region and can meet electric demand with clean energy supply. DNV partnered with ISO New England and successfully conducted a 10-year fleet EV adoption and load forecast covering selected fleet vehicle segments.

DNV’s solution

Our approach relied on a mix of publicly available information and purchased vehicle registration data for the region. We first assessed the vehicle stock in the region to quantify current levels of fleet electrification and the potential for future widescale electrification. We then developed a consensus 10-year adoption forecast, leveraging estimates of vehicle turnover rates and forecasted EV sales shares across the school bus, transit bus, delivery truck, and light-duty fleet segments. Finally, we developed a load forecast model that incorporated estimates of fleet vehicle daily mileage, temperature effects on EV efficiency, and aggregated 24-hour load shapes to develop granular per-vehicle load shapes for inclusion in ISO-NE’s annual load forecasting effort.