Offshore wind U.S.: Big year planned in 2024

The past year has transformed the North American energy landscape, bringing seismic shifts, groundbreaking innovations, and industry-defining moments. As we enter 2024, DNV’s experts will write a series of blogs to dissect the major trends and developments from 2023 and provide insight on what we can expect in 2024.

What you will learn

  • Critical industry and market milestones to support informed planning
  • DNV’s perspective on the current state of offshore wind in North America
  • Tools and resources that can help you de-risk and realize your offshore wind potential.

Introduction

Offshore wind energy development relies on many global uncertainties, making the industry dynamic from year to year; and 2024 is already looking to be an historic year in North America. In 2023, we saw great milestones such as the first commercial electrons enter the United States (U.S.) grid and industry setbacks including project and agreement cancellations. I’ve provided a comprehensive breakdown of U.S. industry milestones, opportunities, and information that supports offshore wind at critical decision points.

BOEM lease auctions

The most visible events happening in 2024 for the U.S. are the four planned Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) lease auctions, a direct result of the Biden administration’s announced interest in an accelerated roadmap for offshore wind in the U.S.1

Region expansions

The 2024 Central Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico auctions will be the second round for these regions. The winners of the first Central Atlantic auction - Avangrid, Dominion, Ørsted, and US Wind - have an opportunity to invest further in an area they’re already developing benefiting from an economy of scale. DNV’s work in levelized cost of energy (LCOE) modeling considers the various array and technology scenarios and has informed competitive lease auction participation.

The first Gulf of Mexico auction, held in August 2023, concluded with only one of the three lease areas being awarded. Global offshore wind developer RWE holds this single lease area and can similarly benefit from their infrastructure development when considering the five nearby final Wind Energy Areas (WEAs). As we outlined in our pre-auction whitepaper, the Gulf of Mexico has unique opportunities that could progress the U.S. market. The region boasts a deep history in offshore and maritime operations and historically documented understanding of stakeholder and environmental impacts. The skilled local labor force possesses the ability to develop a domestic supply chain. However, the low wind resource and low energy prices will require developers to approach this upcoming second auction with creative offtake plans, such as with Power-to-X solutions. DNV has been actively addressing this topic with industry stakeholders and developers, particularly in the last 12 months, as the hydrogen, offshore wind, and oil & gas industries jointly explore the opportunities in the region.


Floating wind on two coasts

The other two planned BOEM auctions for 2024 are Oregon’s coast and within the Gulf of Maine, both of which require floating wind technology. DNV has been an active global participant in readying the offshore wind industry for large-scale floating wind development and our team continues to facilitate the deployment of this technology in North America through our research and advisory projects.

State energy solicitations

We are already seeing offshore wind agreements awarded this year with several more scheduled or anticipated for 2024:

  • Multi-state offshore wind energy solicitation: Connecticut (2.4 GW), Massachusetts (2.4 GW), and Rhode Island (1.2 GW)
  • New York is considering offshore wind projects with a minimum of 800 MW and a maximum of 1.4 GW to be awarded with offshore renewable energy credits (ORECs).4
  • New Jersey just announced (January 24, 2024) the results of its third offshore wind solicitation; the fourth solicitation is expected to be announced in the first half of 2024.5
  • New York and New Jersey are anticipated to announce additional energy solicitations in 2024.

Other industry expectations for 2024

  • The industry may see the completion of the first U.S.-made Wind Turbine Installation Vessel (WTIV).
  • Ørsted’s Revolution Wind Project is expected to start construction in the spring.
  • Dominion Energy’s commercial CVOW Project is expected to start construction in May.
  • Several offshore wind projects are anticipated to receive approval of their Construction and Operations Plans (COPs) and will presumably begin construction shortly thereafter. These include Sunrise Wind, SouthCoast Wind, Maryland Offshore Wind, New England Wind, ASOW 1 (South), and Empire Wind 1. 6 7

In closing

DNV has held a unique global position in the offshore wind industry as expert advisors and independent engineers adjacent to our independent role as Certified Verification Agent. Our ability to provide our clients with the most relevant and risk-mitigating analyses is based on DNV’s dedication to R&D through JIPs, ongoing global floating wind technology research, and several internal offshore wind projects promoting services related to biodiversity and ensuring a net positive impact on the environment.

It is in the foundation of who we are to offer the industry the independent insight that can only be earned with the kind of holistic involvement DNV has had in ocean-based risk mitigation for 160 years.

Learn more about what DNV offers the offshore wind industry in North America.

References

  1. Biden-Harris Administration Releases Roadmap to Accelerate Offshore Wind Transmission and Improve Grid Resilience and Reliability | Department of Energy
  2. Maine Offshore Wind Roadmap February 2023
  3. Joint Industry Projects - DNV
  4. ORECRFP23-1 Solicitation - NYSERDA
  5. Office of the Governor | Governor Murphy Directs New Jersey Board of Public Utilities to Accelerate New Offshore Wind Solicitation (nj.gov)
  6. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM): Empire Wind
  7. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM): Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind

2/9/2024 2:00:00 PM

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