DNV's Top 4 Ideas from ACEEE Summer Study '24
Last week, professionals from across the energy space met for ACEEE Summer Study 2024. As a leading voice in the energy market, DNV had a strong presence at the event with a wide range of experts sharing their views. If you weren't able to make it to these talks -- or if you did and could use a refresher -- here are 4 of the hottest topics that were covered.
Find the topic you're most interested in learning about from our ACEEE Summer Study papers:
- Unlocking equity through large energy users
- You may think that smart thermostats aren't living up to their promise. It's time to fix that.
- How much are refrigerants holding back carbon reduction efforts?
- A pioneering web tool to help model electricity demand.
1. Unlocking equity through large energy users
Intentionally integrating equity into everything we do is necessary to realize the environmental justice opportunity presented by the clean energy transition. The challenge is that energy efficiency practitioners rely upon technical advisory frameworks developed over decades and it can feel radical or risky to adopt novel frameworks that incorporate equity. Even those with a sincere commitment to an equitable energy transition may feel challenged to make the connection between systemic inequities and their next boiler upgrade. This paper provides guidance to energy efficiency program administrators and delivery contractors on the application of robust equity frameworks that incorporate Justice40 metrics, equity risk assessments, and integrated community benefits planning (CBP). This paper will share lessons learned in the first year of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Onsite Energy Program, a new initiative to increase adoption of onsite clean energy technologies for large energy users, for which the authors are integrating energy justice into all aspects of program delivery, coequal with technical expertise. The authors will share what was learned from applying equity frameworks to the design of the Onsite Energy Program’s technical assistance delivery workflow. We will also share case studies from early engagements with program participants to demonstrate how the frameworks can improve equity outcomes and mitigate risks associated with structural inequities built into the technical advisory process over decades. The equity frameworks and case studies presented in this paper will provide practitioners with models to emulate in their own programs.
2. You may think that heat pumps aren’t living up to their promise. It’s time to fix that.
Due to their modular design and minimal installation barriers, ductless mini-split heat pumps (DMSHPs) are an increasingly effective strategy to decarbonize space heating in cold climates. However, their modularity opens the door for partial displacements in which the customer retains their existing fossil fuel heating system to share the building’s heating load with the mini-split. In such scenarios, the DMSHP’s heating load share is unknown and can be highly variable. Program administrators have attempted to account for such partial displacements through different technical reference manual (TRM) algorithms and factors that derate the DMSHP’s presumed heat pump output; however, the authors have found that such factors still overestimate the heat pump’s heating share and associated energy and carbon impacts.
This paper will explore a data-driven approach to improve the prediction of mini-split heating output. Using yearlong measurement and verification data on over 280 DMSHPs installed among 170 homes and businesses that participated in utility programs in the Northeastern U.S., the authors have developed a model (termed HeatMod) that considers several participant characteristics typically collected by program administrators (e.g., sector, building size, climate zone, preexisting heating fuel and system) to pinpoint the expected heating displacement fraction and associated energy and carbon impacts from incented mini-splits. This paper will examine the most predictive indicators of mini-split operation to assist program administrators in designing and marketing heating electrification measures and incentives to optimize the achieved carbon offset per installation.
In such scenarios, the DMSHP’s heating load share is unknown and can be highly variable. Program administrators have attempted to account for such partial displacements through different technical reference manual (TRM) algorithms and factors; however, such factors often overestimate the heat pump’s heating share and associated impacts.
By leveraging participant characteristics that are typically collected by program administrators—e.g, sector, building size, climate zone, preexisting heating fuel—the authors have developed a model (termed HeatMod) to pinpoint the expected heating displacement fraction and associated energy and carbon impacts from incented mini-splits. This paper will examine the most predictive indicators of mini-split operation to assist program administrators in designing and marketing heating electrification measures and incentives to optimize the achieved carbon offset per installation. As the database of heat pump operation grows with remote monitoring capabilities, the authors will explore the potential for machine learning-based enhancements to the model.
3. GWP refrigerants are the next biggest opportunity in demand-side management
With climate change upon us like an ever-darkening cloud, governing stakeholders are making serious commitments to decarbonization. Heat pump technologies offer a viable path to decarbonize buildings, and policymakers advocate for aggressively installing heat pumps, heat pump water heaters (HPWHs), and heat pump clothes dryers (HPCDs). However, it is crucial to both understand and address the environmental risks posed by the hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerants typically used by these systems. This paper integrates refrigerant legislation and emissions calculations using a variety of sources used by California’s DEER/eTRM databases to determine the net CO2e effects of electrifying single-family homes. We determine the net per-home, state-specific global warming impacts of installing:
- HPs (ducted and ductless) in existing homes that either have no air conditioning (AC),
have only room/window ACs, or have central AC - HPWHs to replace existing fossil-fuel or electric storage water heaters
- HPCDs to replace existing fossil-fuel or electric clothes dryers
Answers to these questions will be useful to policymakers and program implementers who are promoting and incentivizing heat pump technology as the centerpiece of electrification. Using these analyses, we also determine the maximum refrigerant global warming potential that—alongside an electric generation mix that is gradually lessening emissions—would yield a net benefit for each state. Finally, we explore possible legislative advances and programmatic measures designed to minimize refrigerant leakage and its deleterious effects by improving contractor education and compliance.
4. A pioneering web tool to help model electricity demand.
Having access to sufficient amounts of electricity is fundamental for health, safety, full participation in society, and enjoyment of a modern living standard. California’s electricity grid extends virtually throughout the state, so affordability is the primary barrier to access enough energy to meet essential customer needs. The state has several mechanisms to assist residents to afford utility bills, and having reliable estimates of electricity requirements will help ensure that programs and policies provide maximum benefit while minimizing ratepayer costs.
The 2023 Essential Use Study (EUS) modeled and analyzed residential electricity usage behaviors and needs to help quantify essential electricity use in California. The study used a combination of utility billing data, surveys, and in-depth interviews to estimate minimum energy needs for various types of customers, including those with medical requirements. The EUS webtool provides a public portal to model electricity requirements to meet the essential needs of households based on user-defined equipment, building characteristics, household demographics, climate regions and seasons. This tool, based on real-world data, and vetted by utilities, regulators, and advocacy groups, provides an empirical resource for estimating energy needs that can be used for developing rate structures to ensure everyone can afford energy.
This paper will present highlights and lessons learned from the EUS that explore potential energy underutilization and incremental household electricity usage related to different thermostat settings and medical needs of residents. During this presentation, we will share paper highlights and demonstrate key features of the EUS webtool that will support future decisions on affordability.