Shipping is entering a new regulatory era that will reshape investment decisions, operational strategies, and fuel choices across the maritime value chain.
Download the Maritime Forecast to 2050 to uncover key trends shaping the future of shipping:
IMO’s Net-Zero Framework
Gain practical insights into the new regulation through a case study showing how different strategies impact vessel compliance.
Fuel demand vs. supply reality
Understand how shipping is approaching a fuel transition tipping point that needs to be matched by increased GHG fuel supply.
Emerging technologies
Explore how technologies like onboard carbon capture and wind-assisted propulsion can help to drive maritime decarbonization.
Download the 2025 edition of the Maritime Forecast to 2050
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Shipping’s transformation is underway, powered by innovation, collaboration, and purpose.
In the wake of the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) approval of the Net-Zero Framework (NZF) in April 2025, the 2025 edition of DNV’s Maritime Forecast to 2050 arrives at a pivotal moment for shipping.
Stakeholders across the maritime value chain should start preparing early and investigate all solutions for finding cost-effective compliance strategies that align with the complex regulatory landscape for GHG emissions.
Success will depend on synchronized progress across ships, fuel supply, and port infrastructure - supported by regulatory clarity, and industry-wide collaboration.
The stage is set for the next phase of the maritime energy transition. The IMO’s Net-Zero Framework has imperfections and greater clarity is urgently needed around how the collected money will be spent. It is already influencing investment decisions, operational choices, and fuel strategies across the industry. Shipowners will adjust their strategic priorities pending the October IMO meeting, which will lay the foundation for the years and decades ahead.
Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen
CEO Maritime
DNV
The NZF is accelerating the business case for alternative fuels, energy efficiency, and onboard carbon capture
This landmark regulation introduces greenhouse gas (GHG) fuel intensity requirements and emissions pricing on a global scale, following the pathway set by other key regulations, such as FuelEU Maritime, EU ETS, and CII. If adopted in October, it will significantly strengthen the economic case for investing in alternative fuels, energy efficiency measures, and carbon capture technologies, setting the stage for a global shift towards low-emission shipping.
By 2030, the global fleet will have the capacity to consume over 50 Mtoe of low-GHG fuels
With the number of alternative-fuelled vessels in operation set to almost double by 2028, shipping is approaching a fuel transition tipping point - sending a strong demand signal to fuel producers and related industries to speed up their progress.
By 2030, the global supply of low-GHG fuels (excluding biodiesel) is projected to be between 70 and 100 Mtoe per year, with shipping expected to receive only a small portion of this
Even if the industry has enough capacity to consume low-GHG fuels, supply must scale up significantly, at prices competitive with other compliance options. Shipping must overcome three main barriers to achieve uptake of low-GHG fuels, at scale: technology and safety; demand and costs; and fuel availability.
Onboard carbon capture (OCC) can cut bulker, tanker, and container fleet emissions up to 19%, contributing to total emission reductions of up to 9%
Equipping 20 major ports with CO2 offloading infrastructure and retrofitting a sufficient number of ships with OCC technology could be as effective as using 25 Mtoe of low-GHG fuels per year in reaching the IMO’s 2030 base target. CO2 storage capacity is expected to between 60 and 85 Mt by 2030, up from last year’s estimate of 47 and 67 Mt. However, securing access to storage sites, or finding alternative uses for the capture CO2 in line with the regulatory framework, is critical for the feasibility of onboard carbon capture solutions.
This could be a breakthrough year for maritime wind energy
Several pilots of wind-assisted propulsion systems (WAPS) are being tested and moving into commercial operation, potentially building trust and confidence in the technologies and providing the basis for future adoption and expansion. Wind-assisted propulsion has already delivered annual fuel savings of between 5% and 20% for certain ships. Under given operational conditions, the potential is large, and DNV has verified WAPS reaching peak values of about 30% reduced energy consumption per nautical mile in favourable conditions.
Take control over your decarbonization journey
Decarbonizing shipping is a complex challenge that demands smart decisions and strategic investments to achieve the IMO’s 2050 zero-emission goal.
To get practical and start taking control over your decarbonization journey, we suggest focusing on these key areas:
Fleet readiness surges ahead of fuel supply - green transition at a tipping point
What is the Maritime Forecast to 2050?
The Maritime Forecast to 2050 by DNV is a comprehensive report that provides insights and guidance for the maritime industry on its path to decarbonization. It is part of DNV's Energy Transition Outlook series.
The Maritime Forecast to 2050 is published annually and has been released regularly since its first edition in 2017. Each edition provides updated insights and recommendations based on the latest developments in the maritime industry, including regulatory changes, developments in alternative fuel supply, as well as technological and infrastructural advancements.
